Households in Campania are heading into autumn and winter with sharply higher projected energy costs. According to reporting by Il Mattino Economia, indexed contracts in the free electricity and gas market are forecast to rise by more than 30% year on year over the September–December period.

The increases are projections, not bills already issued. They apply specifically to indexed free-market contracts, whose prices track wholesale reference prices, and will depend on how wholesale markets actually perform and on individual contract terms.

How large are the projected increases by province?

Il Mattino reports the following estimated year-on-year increases for Campania provinces for September–December:

  • Avellino: +38.3%
  • Benevento: +35.9%
  • Salerno: +35.8%
  • Naples: +35.8%
  • Caserta: +34.7%

Avellino shows the highest projected increase in the regional table, while Caserta shows the lowest, although all five provinces fall above the 30% threshold cited in the forecast.

What is driving the forecast?

The underlying forecast points to much higher wholesale reference prices than a year earlier: a 65% increase in the PUN electricity reference price and a 113% increase in the PSV gas reference price.

Those two markers matter because indexed household contracts pass wholesale movements through to customers. Electricity bills are therefore expected to rise substantially, but gas accounts for the larger share of the autumn–winter increase because heating demand is concentrated in those months and the projected PSV movement is steeper.

Reporting by Sky TG24, citing a Facile.it analysis, translates the wholesale outlook into household spending for a typical family on an indexed contract: €273 for electricity between September and December, up 27%, and €709 for gas, up 43%, for a combined €982. That would be about €270 more than the same period last year.

How does this compare with average Campania spending?

A separate Facile.it Campania observatory from May 2026 provides useful baseline context. Based on real quotations and representative consumer profiles, it reports average annual electricity spending of approximately €946 and average annual gas spending of approximately €670.

The same observatory reports average Campania consumption of 1,794 kWh of electricity and 590 Smc of gas, while noting that results vary by consumption profile and supplier conditions.

These figures should not be directly compared with the September–December forecasts. The periods, assumptions and sample definitions differ: one is an annual average snapshot from May, the other is a forward-looking seasonal projection for indexed contracts.

What households should keep in mind

First, contract type matters. The projected increases concern indexed free-market contracts. Fixed-price contracts, different pricing formulas, regulated arrangements and individual supplier spreads can produce different outcomes.

Second, the forecast is conditional. It assumes the projected wholesale prices are confirmed. If PUN and PSV move differently from the assumed path, household spending will also differ.

Third, separate estimates use separate methods. Sky TG24 also reports that Nomisma Energia projected a lower, separate 23% annual increase for typical families. The Facile.it and Nomisma Energia figures come from different methodologies and should not be treated as a single forecast.

Finally, the sources do not establish how many Campania households hold indexed free-market contracts. The regional percentages describe the estimated impact for that contract group, not an average across every household in Campania.

The practical takeaway for readers is to check whether their contract is indexed or fixed, look at the PUN- and PSV-linked components, compare September–December consumption with last year, and treat the provincial percentages as a warning signal for the season ahead rather than a final bill.